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Prediction markets: Going beyond personal preference and understanding reality

A session at Planning-ness

Adam Siegel, CEO and Co-Founder of Inkling Inc.

Prediction markets are used to tap the collective wisdom of a large group of people about what is going to happen in the future. While prediction markets are becoming more and more prevalent in large organizations among employees as an early warning system to understand the likelihood of operational risk, i.e. “Will the new diaper velcro strap pass quality control tests?” there is growing interest in their application in market research. First, prediction markets are built to ask what people THINK is going to happen, not what they WANT to happen, a very different thought process for research participants or employees. Second, prediction markets can be used to improve the sample of people used in conventional studies by understanding their historical performance making predictions. For example, a research participant or employee who has proven their mettle predicting relevant events over time and is from the demographic profile you seek to test should be a very valuable participant in any research study!

In the workshop portion we’ll talk about how all this works in practice and go through the process of setting up a sample prediction market for a volunteer’s company or client.

About the speaker

This person is speaking at this event.
Adam Siegel

I work at http://inklingmarkets.com. Book reader (the paper kind), music listener, cooker, napper. bio from Twitter

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