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A Snowball’s Chance: Why million-to-one shots come up nine times out of ten

A session at Skeptics on the Fringe 2013

Thursday 15th August, 2013

7:50pm to 8:50pm (GMT)

Human beings are, on the whole, rubbish at probability. Especially really small probabilities – are you more likely to die from a lightning strike or from falling masonry? Is it worth buying insurance against meteorites? What are the odds of Scotland winning the 2014 World Cup?

In this talk, Colin puts really small probability events into context, using monkeys with typewriters, the absurdly improbable life of Girolamo Cardano, and Pratchett’s Law.

You’ll go away equipped with the tools to think about very unlikley things. Probably.

Colin is the author of several Maths For Dummies books, and has been fascinated by probability since losing his first game of Yahtzee. A former rocket scientist, he came up with an equation used in keeping the world safe from being destroyed by solar flares (so far so good) before setting up shop as a maths tutor and author.

He now lives in Dorset with an espresso pot and nothing to prove.

For more about Colin, check his website: http://www.flyingcoloursmaths.co.uk

About the speaker

This person is speaking at this event.
Colin Beveridge

Author of several Maths For Dummies books, and has been fascinated by probability since losing his first game of Yahtzee

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When

Time 7:50pm8:50pm GMT

Date Thu 15th August 2013

Short URL

lanyrd.com/schxmp

Official session page

www.edinburghskeptics.co.uk/…ge/

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Books by speaker

  • Glorious Resolution Of Forces In Equilibrium
  • Completing the Square
  • Basic Maths Practice Problems For Dummies

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